Vietnam’s political scene in the past 3 months has had too many changes, the power group close to the General Secretary has fallen one by one. Experts believe that, in this battle, former Minister of Public Security and incumbent State President To Lam shakes hands with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to clean up the forces supported by the General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, and To Lam will be the winner to take the party head while Pham Minh Chinh will be the runner-up meaning he will remain in his government leader position for another term.
Obviously, Lam is aiming for the position of General Secretary, however, if we say that PM Chinh is doomed to finish second and remains in his post, then it may be just the surface. PM Chinh is an ambitious person, is he doomed to be the runner-up character?
In China, there is also a figure who once “came second”, that is Li Keqiang – the late Prime Minister of China, who held power for two terms under Xi Jinping. Li and Xi are a “similar dream” couple, the first always found a way to escape from the second’s shadow, and vice versa, Xi Jinping also sees Li as a thorn that needs to be pulled out.
In China, Li was in a weak position, because he was Xi’s subordinate. Li hoped for the Chinese party law system, established by senior leaders, according to which Xi will have to retire after two terms and Li will have the opportunity to move up.
However, after two terms, Xi abolished these regulations, allowing himself to sit in power for life, and at the same time removed Li from the political arena. After leaving his position of power, Li died mysteriously, helping Xi relieve a burden and also a great worry.
That is the end of the story in China, when the runner-up conflicts with the winner. Assuming, Lam comes first and Chinh comes second, then most likely, the scenario of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang will recur in Hanoi. These two people are not part of the same power group, and their interests are often in conflict, so no one will give up. Their handshake is just because of the situation, if there is a chance, they are ready to fight each other.
Up to this point, Lam is still not the winner, he is just the one with the highest chance. Lam needs to wait until Trong closes his eyes. With its “military” nature, it is possible for Lam to take over both the State President position and the General Secretary position. In fact, Lam once had the ambition to hold two positions- State President and Minister of Public Security.
Surely, Lam cannot forget that PM Chinh destroyed his ambition to hold two positions. Suppose, Lam comes first and Chinh comes second, does the incumbent PM “obediently obey his boss” or not? Or he is waiting for Lam to make a mistake so he can take action?
Once promoted to the position of Prime Minister, few people are satisfied to stop, because this position is not far from the General Secretary’s seat. Meanwhile, if he sat in the current position, Chinh would also feel insecure. With the “furnace” in Lam’s hands, who knows, at some point, Lam will turn the “furnace” again, blowing fire into Chinh’s house?
Remember, back in the 13th National Congress in early 2021, Chinh was a less prominent figure in the race before the congress. However, at the sprint stage, Chinh broke through and won the Prime Minister’s seat under the nose of Vuong Dinh Hue. A person who is silent, but always has a quick sprint, then surely, that person has been plotting for a long time before taking action.
To Lam has a strength that is difficult for any force to rival, but Chinh also has an advantage, which is that he is good at plotting and making sudden moves. If Lam is not careful, he may become a victim of the incumbent government leader.
Hoang Phuc – Thoibao.de
